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Drop rate

Discussion in 'Archive' started by zzZzz, May 6, 2015.

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  1. zzZzz

    zzZzz User

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    after see this post, i wonder if this is correct or is just an exageration or even troll... because if this is true 1 week for 3 d weapons is totally op and dont fit with the hardcore part of the game.
     
  2. Luminight

    Luminight User

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    drop rate is always proportionate to kill rate. kill lots of mobs fast and you'll get lots of drops. solo mobs unbuffed and you'll lag behind everyone. support is important and while the solo guys may race ahead lvl 1 to 40. after then they will lag behind!
     
  3. Fuzee

    Fuzee User

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    it all depends on rng gods. you might hunt for 3 hours and get 5 d grade drops and you might hunt for 1 month and get 1 weapon or 0. either they got lucky or they sacrificed poor animals to rng gods or they are exaggerating.
     
  4. zzZzz

    zzZzz User

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    even 1 weapon at week its enough to make a lot of money... years ago i never had a full drop... never. n e v e r. and i played this game really a lot of hours... 12+ hours everyday in summer.
     
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  5. Fuzee

    Fuzee User

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    i would have to disagree, you are saying that the more mobs you kills it increases your chance of dropping an item?

    for example:
    kill 1 mob = 0.001% to drop
    kill 100 mobs = 0.01% to drop
    kill 1000 mobs = 0.1% to drop
    kill 10000 mobs = 1% to drop
    etc...

    i think your chance never changes does not matter how many mobs you kill or at what rate, when you flip a coin chance of it being heads is still 50% does not matter if you flip it 1 or 1000 times.

    so based on above, if chance to drop weapon is 0.001% it will always stay 0.001% even if you kill 1000 mobs.

    p.s. i could be wrong :d
     
  6. zzZzz

    zzZzz User

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    exact. this is a common error of people that never studies how random things work...
    get a dice. we want to get the number 3. the chance to get 3 is 1/6. throw the dice 10 times. every time you throw the dice, the chance to get 3 is the same. 1/6. however, the more you throw it, the more chance to get 3. because you are increasing the testing rate.
    if you fix your testing rate to a fixed number. example, 10. you always will have 1/6 chance. you could be lucky and get five times the number 3. but, the more you increase the number of tries the more the chance will be near 1/6.
     
  7. Fuzee

    Fuzee User

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    yeap, but it does not increase your chance of getting 3 when you roll dice for 1000th time, its just more tries you have more chances you get to roll the dice but at each roll its still 1/6.
     
  8. Luminight

    Luminight User

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    i think you are being extremely pedantic in your wording because you have basically just said the more you kill of course you will have more items. thank you for being a condescending patronising idiot and stating the obvious. i never said the chances would increase i said if you kill more and faster you will get more

    mathematic forum trolls,that's a new one to me
     
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  9. Fuzee

    Fuzee User

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    i meant no insult, nor disrespect. i apologize if you took it in that way. i am no mathematics troll nor professor nor trying to say that i know more than you, i have my opinion & i can disagree or agree with any other posts. i simply explained it to others who would read this thread to not get confused. it might be common sense & obvious to you & me but some might not know.
     
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  10. zzZzz

    zzZzz User

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    there are a lot of people that cry everyday saying: the droprate of x is 1/148. i killed exactly 149 mobs and i dont have x. wtf. bug. broken. omg.
     
  11. BiteMe

    BiteMe User

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    you god damned time waster, stop trying to confuse people.

    what he meant was that the more mobs you kill, the higher the chance of you getting a drop, for trying your luck 1000 times instead of 1 time. he didn't say that you will increase the item's drop rate related to that specific mob.
     
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  12. Norz!

    Norz! User

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    it's almost as bad as those crying over "too many drops" because some other random dude on the internet claims to have had a couple lucky days :p
     
  13. Fuzee

    Fuzee User

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    "kill lots of mobs fast and you'll get lots of drops." this does not imply whatever you just said. i am again sorry if i wasted anyone's time but when you kill lots of mobs does not guarantee you to get lots of drops!

    if i confused anyone please feel free to pm me, i will explain it in more detail.
     
  14. Luminight

    Luminight User

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    fyi i never used the word guarantee, it is basic common sense.

    to put it into your style so maybe you understand what i said (why im bothering i don't know)

    lumi kills 100 mobs in 5 hours = he cries cause he sucks and is soloing without support classes like a scrub (he probably actually dies and goes negative exp that day lawl

    the next day lumi makes friends with a bd and pp

    lumi then kills 500 mobs in 5 hours at the same spot, all other variables are the same = lumi gets more items than the first day
     
  15. Fuzee

    Fuzee User

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    you dont have to explain anything to me, i understood what you meant, i simply explained it in little more detail for everyone else who will not be able to understand "common sense". you can simply ignore my post and move on, i have already apologized to you if you took it to your heart.

    note that when you solo you get all drop to yourself, where if you are in party killing 500 mobs doe not necessarily mean it will net you same amount of profit as killing 100 mobs on your own. maybe it will get you more xp.

    just to add one last fact, if i am in a party and we kill 500 mobs and i get a weapon by random drop (1/500 = 0.2%) does not mean that when you will be in a party you will have 0.2% chance of getting a weapon if you kill 500 mobs.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2015
  16. Approbus

    Approbus User

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    one thing you guys seem to forget: "korean mathematics" and statistics are two different planets.
     
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  17. Fuzee

    Fuzee User

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    agreed :d
     
  18. koyia

    koyia User

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    statistics is math, you can get it or not but stop arguing about that.

    the more mobs you kill, more chances to get, with 1% and 50 tries you dont have 50% is ~40% and with 100 mobs is 63.4%, as you see is not linear but is bigger
     
  19. vanity

    vanity Moderator

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    that happened at gran kain i can give you more details :
    1 week aoeing the same spot for 12-16h a day with cp
    weapons were low d grade ( crafted dagger ) which we used to farm till we had enough adena in our pockets to buy mid-top staff
    we had bronze shields for almost every cp member , same with bone helmets
    you can believe it or not its up to you xd
     
  20. Ysefir

    Ysefir User

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    poisson's law : p(x=k)=((e^-l)l^k)/k!, it applies as a good approximation of bernouilli's law when chance is low (less than 10%) and tries are numerous ie above 50, the lower the chance, the higher the tries, the better the approximation as n*p (number of tries times the chance will tend to l in the previous formula)

    so you can use p(x=k) = (e^(-np) * np^k)/k!

    the probability to loot one item is p(x=1) 2 items p(x=2) etc..., the formula becomes p(1 loot)=(e^(-np)*(np)^k
    change p with the droprate and n with the number of mobs killed and you'll get your chance to drop one item

    for an item with a 1% drop rate (so p=0.01) and 100 tries you get np=1
    p(1 loot) = e(-1) *1^k = e(-1) = 0.37 --> 37% (surprising isn't it ?)
    in fact it is so low because it calculate the probability that you get only one loot, the formula to get "at least one loot" would be the sum of the probabilities for k=1, k=2 k=3 etc
    that is why it is better to calculate the probability not to get any item (k=0) so that the probability to get at least one would be 1-p(x=0)

    p(x=0) = e(-1) * 1^0 = e(-1)= 0.37
    1-p=0.63 --> 63% chance to loot at least one time

    but it show that by increasing the tries, you get a higher probability to get the item. anyway luck is still important as you'll never reach the 100%

    (mostly useless maths, but i was working on that for my finals when i came across this post ^^)
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2015
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