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Experiment 5: Defining the chances of obtaining items from Treasure Chests

Discussion in 'Experiments Archive' started by Yumi, Nov 15, 2012.

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  1. Yumi

    Yumi Innova Group

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    tags: [god] [chests]


    "how exciting!", thought yumi as she fastened the fanciest belt she had and looked at her reflection in the mirror. the process of dressing up for an important event is no laughing matter and is not to be taken carelessly. especially when it is "all you can invent" convention where she will be presenting her latest device and seeing all most prominent inventors of aden!

    yumi quite liked the image that the mirror presented to her but couldn't help feeling something was missing. but what was it?..

    an idea struck her. "a pendant would fit really well to the look!", she realised. she hurried to her room, opened the huge chest of drawers where she kept her things, including jewellery, and searched for a pendant to complete her image. she rummaged in the drawer but couldn't find it. it wasn't there.

    the thing with yumi was that she was as stubborn as one can be and never gave up on anything once she had set her mind to it. naturally, she would turn the whole place upside down to find that ruddy pendant she needs. it's her big night and nothing, nothing can spoil it!



    the purpose of this test was to reveal the approximate chances of getting items by opening [​IMG] 10,000 treasure chests.

    after opening 10,000 treasure chests i got the following:


    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] treasure chest 10000100%[​IMG] attribute stone fragment box 100410,04%[​IMG] elixir pack (d-grade)345834,58%[​IMG] elixir pack (c-grade)161516,15%[​IMG] elixir pack (b-grade)122812,28%[​IMG] elixir pack (a-grade)102110,21%[​IMG] elixir pack (s-grade)8148,14%[​IMG] elixir pack (r-grade)4584,58%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (d-grade)1851,85%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (c-grade)580,58%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (b-grade)450,45%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (a-grade)360,36%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (s-grade)220,22%[​IMG]enchant scroll pack (r-grade)60,06%[​IMG] hair accessory pack500,5%

    [​IMG]


    the table below shows the results of opening the [​IMG] 1,004 attribute stone fragment boxes i obtained.

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] attribute stone fragment box1004100%[​IMG] holy stone fragment14814,8%[​IMG] earth stone fragment17317,3%[​IMG] fire stone fragment17417,4%[​IMG] water stone fragment15815,8%[​IMG] wind stone fragment17717,7%[​IMG] dark stone fragment17417,4%

    [​IMG]

    conclusion: the chances of getting fragments of different attributes through opening an attribute stone fragment box are practically the same.

    and here is what i got from all the other chests:

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] elixir pack (d-grade)3458100%[​IMG]elixir of cp (d-grade)113732,9%[​IMG]elixir of mental strength (d-grade)115833,5%[​IMG]elixir of life (d-grade)116333,6%

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] elixir pack (c-grade)1615100%[​IMG]elixir of cp (c-grade)52832,7%[​IMG]elixir of mental strength (c-grade)53433%[​IMG]elixir of life (c-grade)55334,3%
    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] elixir pack (b-grade)1228100%[​IMG]elixir of cp (b-grade)40733,1%[​IMG]elixir of mental strength (b-grade)42034,2%[​IMG]elixir of life (b-grade)40132,7%

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] elixir pack (a-grade)1021100%[​IMG]elixir of cp (a-grade)35835%[​IMG]elixir of mental strength (a-grade)33232,5%[​IMG]elixir of life (a-grade)33132,5%

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] elixir pack (s-grade)814100%[​IMG]elixir of cp (s-grade)25831,7%[​IMG]elixir of mental strength (s-grade)26031,9%[​IMG]elixir of life (s-grade)29636,4%

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] elixir pack (r-grade)458100%[​IMG] elixir of cp (r-grade)11024%[​IMG] elixir of life (r-grade)11324,6%[​IMG] elixir of mental strength (r-grade)12126,4%[​IMG] elixir of blessing (r-grade)11425%

    conclusion: the chance of getting elixirs of cp, mp and hp from the elixir packs obtained (d,c,b,a,s,r-grade) was practically the same.


    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] enchant scroll pack (d-grade)185100%[​IMG] scroll enchant armor (d-grade)8747%[​IMG] scroll enchant weapon (d-grade)9450,8%[​IMG] blessed scroll enchant armor (d-grade)10,5 %[​IMG] blessed scroll enchant weapon (d-grade)31,7%

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] enchant scroll pack (c-grade)58100%[​IMG] scroll enchant armor (c-grade)3356,9%[​IMG] scroll enchant weapon (c-grade)2543,1 %
    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] enchant scroll pack (b-grade)45100%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (b-grade)2146,6%[​IMG] scroll enchant weapon (b-grade)2453,4%

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] enchant scroll pack (a-grade)36100%[​IMG] scroll enchant armor (a-grade)2261,1 %[​IMG] scroll enchant weapon (a-grade)1336,1%[​IMG] blessed scroll enchant armor (a-grade)12,8 %

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] enchant scroll pack (s-grade)22100%[​IMG] scroll enchant armor (s-grade)1359%[​IMG] scroll enchant weapon (s-grade)941%

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG]enchant scroll pack (r-grade)6100%[​IMG] scroll enchant armor (r-grade)350 %[​IMG] scroll enchant weapon (r-grade)350 %

    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] enchant scroll pack (d,c,b,a,s,r-grade)352100%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (d-grade)18552.5%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (c-grade)5816.5%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (b-grade)4512.8%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (a-grade)3610.2%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (s-grade)226.3%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (r-grade)61.7%

    [​IMG]


    conclusion: the chance of getting an enchant scroll pack (d-grade) from a treasure chest is practically equal to the cumulative chance of obtaining enchant scroll packs of other grades.

    all in all i got the following results:


    {tbody}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tr}{/tbody}
    [​IMG] treasure chest10000100%[​IMG] attribute stone fragment box100410,04%[​IMG] elixir pack(d,c,b,a,s,r-grade)859485.94%[​IMG] enchant scroll pack (d,c,b,a,s,r-grade)3523.52%[​IMG] hair accessory pack500,5%

    [​IMG]


    conclusion: upon opening a treasure chest you are most likely to receive an elixir of a particular grade. you have a 10% chance of getting an attribute fragment. no pendants were obtained from 10,000 treasure chests.

    while a treasure chest costs about 100k adena, it does not seem cost-efficient to open one exclusively with the purpose of obtaining a pendant. you might be very lucky and get the necessary pendant without spending lots of adena, but you are more likely to spend a lot and end up failing to get the pendant you need. and if you wish to get a pendant that is not even on sale everything depends on how much adena you are ready to spend to get what you want.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 29, 2015
    Teodore likes this.
  2. Teodore

    Teodore User

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    ty for the answer to my question.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 16, 2012
  3. Pr0t0n

    Pr0t0n User

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    i'm sorry but u calculated the % of what u get from attribute-elixir-enchant boxes but u didn't calculate the % of what u get from the only interesting box: hair accessory pack??? that makes no sence.
     
  4. LesmoS

    LesmoS User

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    from this hair accessory pack u get only different hats. pendants u must get from another pack which no one from 10k chests
     
  5. Hax

    Hax User

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    could you expand the test and add %'s of getting which pendant from like 1000 pendant boxes ?
     
  6. DeepBlue

    DeepBlue Head Moderator (EU) Head moderator

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    can you put requests to the request thread please else they get lost here ;)
     
  7. Hax

    Hax User

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    well its not a new test! just a small expansion to see if even if you manage to get a pendant box, whats the chance to get smth valueable inside it :d
     
  8. Pr0t0n

    Pr0t0n User

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    i thought it was changed that u get pendant box in the accessory box
     
    Zmyoochzo likes this.
  9. DeepBlue

    DeepBlue Head Moderator (EU) Head moderator

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    its still a request so please post it in the appropriate place, its likely to get missed in this thread.
     
    Zmyoochzo likes this.
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